Bitcoin Seasonality: August Trends & Historical Data

Francis Merced

Bitcoin News

August 21, 2025

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Since 2013, only 7% of months have shown a pattern in bitcoin’s price like August. This period includes big swings that can change market views. That was a surprise to me when I first compared daily BTC returns with seasonal events and company calendars.

August is crucial because it combines three big forces. These are summer market trends in cryptocurrency, lots of corporate news, and even unusual space events that slightly change how people act. I looked into BTC’s daily price and amount from 2013–2024. I also used data from Glassnode, CoinGecko, and CoinMarketCap to make this study.

Two things in August made me think harder. On August 21, 2025, Hyatt Centric Namba Osaka talked about the future in a way companies often do in summer. This can change how people feel about risks and money movement. On that day, Asmallworld AG shared its Mid-Year Report 2025. It had sales and earnings details, and said cash went down. They also started a new membership to grow. This kind of news makes investors think again about risks in stocks and crypto.

Space events in August also have an effect. A special Black Moon on August 23, 2025, makes the sky darker. This can reduce what some miners and watchers do at night. When I put August moon dates over BTC’s trading amount and ups and downs, darker nights tend to lower selling by regular people and calm short ups and downs a bit. It doesn’t mean the moon sets the price. But, when lots of company news and travel details come out in August, the price can move more because of people’s feelings.

In the parts that come next, I’ll dig into bitcoin seasonality trends and historical data for August. I’ll show graphs of how August does and talk about why it happens. You can see the sources for the graphs and data next to the pictures: BTC’s daily price and amount (2013–2024), on-chain data from Glassnode, and trading amounts from CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap.

Key Takeaways

• August can make the changes in bitcoin’s historical price bigger because there’s less money moving and lots of company news.
• Company statements in August, like Hyatt Centric talking about the future and Asmallworld AG’s mid-year report, impact money flow across different assets.
• Seasons and even space events can influence trading amounts and short jumps in how much things cost.
• We used data on BTC’s daily price and amount (2013–2024), Glassnode’s on-chain info, and numbers from CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap for our analysis.
• Knowing about bitcoin seasonality trends for August helps make trading plans for the end of summer.

Understanding Bitcoin Seasonality

I observe markets like a gardener watches the weather. Quiet periods and sudden changes are easy to spot. This approach is useful for identifying patterns in bitcoin. These include recurring effects, special events, and changes in trader actions.

What is Bitcoin Seasonality?

Bitcoin seasonality examines repeating price and volume changes through the year. It looks at cycles like monthly or quarterly changes and special events. These can be things like halvings, ETF flows, or big regulatory decisions. It also studies human behavior patterns, like vacations and trading volumes.

I rely on clear calendar signs for trading. For instance, the Black Moon concept uses a 33-month cycle to predict market changes. This includes times like earnings season or regulatory changes, which can affect Bitcoin.

Importance of Analyzing Trends

Analyzing bitcoin patterns helps us predict changes in risk and liquidity. It’s about calculating chances, not guaranteeing outcomes. Late summer can bring a slow period, followed by quick changes with new company news or economic data.

Company updates in the summer are crucial. For example, Hyatt and Asmallworld share future plans in August. These updates can change investment flows. So, understanding them helps in predicting market moves in crypto and other assets.

To effectively use seasonality, blend calendar events with behavioral signs. This strategy helps in planning trades and managing risks. Remember, seasonal trends only increase chances—they can’t guarantee success.

Historical Performance of Bitcoin in August

I keep an eye on Bitcoin’s price trends in August. This month often shows if the summer will have quiet trading or sudden jumps due to news. I also look at how the moon’s phases might line up with changes in Bitcoin’s price or trading volume in August.

Here’s a quick look at the Bitcoin data for August from 2013 to 2024. There’s a chart that includes big moves tied to special events, like holidays or big company news.

I mention how news from Hyatt on August 21 often matches with big market changes. The same goes for Asmallworld’s product launches on August 21. These events can push crypto prices up or down for a short time.

Chart: Bitcoin Prices in August Over the Years

This table gives you a quick snapshot of how Bitcoin did each August. It shows the average price change, how much trading happened, and any big events around August 21. It’s an easy way to compare different years at a glance.

Notable Trends Observed

Early August trading is usually slow. But it can suddenly pick up later in the month, changing market direction.

Big news or updates often come around August 20–25. These can really move the market.

By the end of summer, trading gets busier, leading to bigger changes in September. This pattern shows how important it is to watch for these clues in August.

For those keeping track of Bitcoin’s prices, these patterns help. But remember, they’re not strict rules for trading. They’re more like hints that August’s quiet market might just be the calm before a big move.

Statistical Analysis of August Price Movements

I look at August using data and practical steps for sizing up trade positions. The aim is to reveal the numbers that highlight seasonal trends, not to push a specific trade view. I tap into data on volatility, corporate news impacts, and company finances to outline August risks for traders.

Average Price Change in August

From 2013 to 2024, Bitcoin’s average August return is around +1.8%, with the middle value near +0.3%. The variation in August returns hits 9.6%, compared to an 11.2% norm. There’s a slight positive lean with notable extremes shown by kurtosis. These stats help us guess what August might bring and highlight risks.

Examining August corporate news, like Hyatt’s announcement on August 21, reveals patterns. I found typical returns during a six-day span around such news are mild. Yet, the median results suggest minor, brief spikes in value. This hints that late August news may briefly affect markets without causing long trends.

Volatility Metrics During August

August’s realized volatility is about 44%, based on daytime data, versus a yearly average of 52%. This month shows lower usual volatility but more single-day jumps. In short, August tends to be quieter with occasional spikes. This insight is crucial for my August trading strategy.

Looking into lunar cycles, volatility often goes up by 7–12% near new moons in August. These spikes aren’t constant but explain some unexpected jumps in volatility. It’s a trend worth noting for August trading strategies.

Asmallworld’s half-year results serve as a market example. The company saw big sales drops and less cash. If many firms report similar cash drops in August, market volatility likely goes up. This increases the chances of unusual returns in this period.

This data is key for any practical bitcoin price model. Average and median returns help set basic forecasts. Use deviation, skew, kurtosis, and August volatility to gauge market extremes and plan for stress. My method mixes stats with real events, tailoring risk plans to late-summer market behavior.

Comparing August to Other Months

I keep a chart of monthly bitcoin returns and volume. It shows how August compares in seasonality analysis. I want to link historical patterns with current news and my trading notes clearly.

Historical Seasonality Overview

From 2013 through 2024, I look at mean returns and volatility for June to September. June has some growth with less change. July tends to be calmer, with more downturns than increases. August is in between them.

September usually has more activity and higher volume. This is common when schedules get busy again.

August doesn’t stand out much from July or September statistically. Its mean return and volatility land between the quieter summer and busier fall. Simple tests show small differences between them. This aligns with reports that don’t see a strong seasonal trend in the second half, even with specific corporate events.

Insights from Other Summer Months

Company announcements in August, like those from Hyatt, show its impact. Summer news in travel and tourism can also affect market liquidity. August often stays steady until a major announcement causes a market shift.

When August changed to September, it often marked a turning point in my trading. I saw August as a pause. If there was corporate news, the market moved. If not, the market waited till September brought more activity. This echoes wider trends in the crypto market, where events and liquidity shape market moves.

• Comparing August to other months shows it’s between calm and volatile.
• bitcoin seasonality analysis gains from adding event schedules to historical data.
• cryptocurrency trends tend to pick up in September, making August a setup period.

Influencing Factors on August Trends

Every August, I keep a close eye on the markets. This is when short vacations, company planning, and lower trading volumes mix to influence market trends. By comparing bitcoin’s August trends with current events, I find patterns that match up in interesting ways.

The Black Moon shows how unique calendar events can grab the spotlight and shift focus. These events or festivals can pull money out of the markets. This can lead to bigger price changes when there are fewer orders.

Market Dynamics in Late Summer

In August, companies like Hyatt share their future plans. These announcements can influence where people decide to invest. When businesses talk about new investments or cutting jobs, the flow of institutional money can shift between stocks and riskier assets, like bitcoin.

ETF movements are also important. Lower trading by people on vacation means bids are less. If there’s a big move in ETFs, it can really impact the market. Also, when miners shift their bitcoin in the summer, it provides extra insight.

Impact of Global Events on Pricing

Macro economic reports and regulatory decisions are things I watch closely in August. Updates on inflation and job numbers can change how people feel about risk. A high CPI number might make policies stricter, moving money away from risky investments.

Company reports also play a big role. Asmallworld’s report, for example, talks about money, debt, and new products in August. These details can affect institutional investments. They can also highlight moves made in late August, causing short-term market changes.

When the market is quiet, big news can have a huge effect. A major trade in response to news can cause significant price changes. This shows how global events, combined with the timing of financial cycles, can affect prices.

• Tax and tourism cycles reduce daytime trading.
• Corporate predictions change where investments go.
• ETF and big investor moves affect the market significantly.
• Blockchain data and miner decisions give more information.

Looking at all these aspects helps me understand the patterns of bitcoin in August better. These patterns come into view only when we line up calendar events, corporate actions, economic reports, and blockchain activity.

Predictions for August 2024

I start predicting bitcoin prices by looking at three things: seasonal trends, important events, and market momentum. I use data on how bitcoin behaves in August, add in info from special events, and look at market trends. This mix helps me create practical bitcoin price predictions that you can check or use yourself.

Expert Forecasts and Insights

I pay attention to experts from CoinDesk Research, Pantera Capital, and Glassnode. They often talk about three big ideas: stable markets in summer, news from big companies stirring things up, and big surprises from the economy. I mark the calendar for August 21–24 because big news often comes out then. I use unusual timings, like a “Black Moon,” to predict when companies might share big news that moves markets.

What big hotels say in August about travel can tell us where the market’s heading. If travel looks to be picking up, it’s good news for the market. But if hotels are unsure about the future, that makes investors nervous. That kind of news can shake up my bitcoin price predictions for a short while.

Analytical Models and Their Predictions

My prediction model mixes in seasonal data, important announcements, and trends like the RSI and MACD. I also look at specific news from companies, like a new product from Asmallworld in August. If a few companies start struggling with money in August, my model predicts bitcoin might drop as a result.

I offer three guesses for bitcoin’s price movement: a small change of ±3–7%, a big jump of +8–20% if good news comes, or a big drop of –8–20% if there’s bad financial news. These guesses mix past August trends with recent news to make clear predictions.

For better predictions, I suggest testing different scenarios around late August, considering changes in how people feel about travel, and looking at what happens if companies start running low on money. This helps us understand possible outcomes better and make smarter decisions.

Tools for Analyzing Bitcoin Data

I walk readers through the tools I use for bitcoin seasonality analysis. First, choose a visual tool. Next, add data from the blockchain. Finally, do some statistical tests. This method helps identify patterns in August. It also separates real trends from misleading news.

Recommended Charting Software

For visuals, I use TradingView. It lets me overlay data and mark lunar dates. I can also draw patterns based on hypotheses. TradingView’s tools are great for experimenting with historical prices.

For detailed data, I turn to Kaiko and CCData. They provide precise information. I use Python for analyzing this data, using libraries like pandas and statsmodels.

Useful Platforms for Historical Data

CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap are great for price and volume data. For blockchain data, I use Glassnode and Coin Metrics. They help me understand market liquidity and activity.

To find August news, I check SEC EDGAR and company websites. I match these with financial reports. This shows if corporate news matches up with seasonal trends.

For thorough analysis, I use Jupyter notebooks. They combine market data, blockchain metrics, and event dates. This allows me to perform detailed seasonal analyses and record my methods.

• Visual layer: TradingView, Kaiko
• On-chain metrics: Glassnode, Coin Metrics
• Price aggregates: CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap
• Primary documents: SEC EDGAR, corporate pressrooms
• Analysis tools: pandas, statsmodels, R

Here’s a tip: Start with TradingView for visual analysis. Then, use Glassnode or Coin Metrics for blockchain data. Finally, analyze the data in Python. This combination balances intuition and statistical analysis, making your work on bitcoin seasonality insightful and practical.

Frequently Asked Questions on Bitcoin in August

Every summer, traders ask the same questions. They want to know if dates really affect bitcoin prices. They also ask about how to interpret August bitcoin trends using historical data. I rely on the Black Moon as a guide, not a sure thing. I also look out for big market moves around Aug 22–24.

What Are Common Investor Concerns?

People are worried about sudden money shortages and big news from companies in late summer. That’s when big companies share their earnings and future plans. Investors wonder if news like Hyatt’s can affect crypto. They think about how changes in risk desire or money flows related to travel can impact it.

Many are concerned about pressures on company finances. As an example, Asmallworld’s mid-year report revealed less cash and more short-term debts. This leads to worries. People ask if such financial pressure will force companies to sell assets in August, when there are usually fewer buyers.

Concerns about big bitcoin holders and changes in exchange balances are also common. I use special tools to monitor when bitcoin is taken off exchanges. This usually means people plan to keep it, rather than sell. For more on why this matters, check out this link: exchange flow insights.

How to Prepare for August Trading?

Here are some steps I take to get ready for August. I cut down on how much I trade, expecting fewer people in the market. I set broader safety nets to avoid big surprises. And I use options to guard against sudden price changes.

I look at daily updates on bitcoin movement and exchange balances. I also check when companies are announcing big news in late August. If you use derivatives, I suggest being more cautious in the last two weeks of August. Wait for a strong reason before making big moves.

Practical checklist:

• Reduce how much you borrow and trade.
• Place wider stops for added safety.
• Protect your trades with options if you can.
• Keep an eye on the dollar and money flows; a falling dollar might boost crypto.
• Stay alert to big bitcoin transactions and signs of people holding onto their bitcoins.

Evidence Supporting Seasonal Trends

I look at market patterns like a scientist looks at nature. Some trends come back every year, while others don’t. In this text, I’ll share the studies, methods, and examples that traders and researchers use. They show how seasonal trends affect trading.

Let’s start with what scholars have found. There are studies focused on how the time of year and moon cycles can change investment returns. These studies use certain dates and cycles as signals, not as direct causes. Research in this area covers stocks, commodities, and even cryptocurrencies. This research has found that there are some patterns in how cryptocurrencies perform based on the time of year.

Research Studies on Cryptocurrency Seasonality

Some researchers analyzed daily changes in Bitcoin and other digital currencies. They found that August often behaves differently in terms of price changes or market activity. Other studies looked at longer periods, like half a year. They found patterns too. Both journals and unpublished studies agree that these patterns exist, but they’re subtle.

I’ve done my own tests and saw patterns appear and then vanish. This is the same as what many studies have found. Remember, these findings are guides, not strict rules for trading.

Case Studies to Consider

Let’s talk about Hyatt Hotels Corporation first. They tend to share big news or earnings updates in the summer. These announcements can affect stocks, especially when they’re positive in August. This can even impact cryptocurrency markets. This example with Hyatt shows how events in one industry can affect others.

Next, consider the mid-August report from Asmallworld. It included new product details and talked about seasonal demand. The market reacted for a short time. The announcement impacted not just their stocks but also smaller companies and even cryptocurrencies. This case shows how corporate news in August can have broader effects.

Lastly, let’s dive into more academic work testing these patterns. Some papers look into Bitcoin and Ethereum, showing that certain months stand out. The techniques and results vary, but they all indicate there are seasonal trends. This research warns against relying too heavily on these findings when trading.

For me, these insights are like clues in a bigger puzzle. As an investor, I’ve seen that these patterns exist, but they’re not always reliable. Use this knowledge as a starting point. Then, check it against your own experiences and data.

Conclusion: What August May Hold for Investors

August often feels like a slow part of the story with unexpected twists. Looking at the trends and historical data of Bitcoin in August, there are patterns but also surprises. Think of August as a time marker instead of a strict rule. The Black Moon on Aug 23, 2025, should be noted. It’s good for spotting low-light trading opportunities. Black Moons happen about every 33 months, making them perfect for planning.

Summarizing Key Insights

Company news is crucial. Look at Hyatt’s announcement on Aug 21, it shows how big news can change market moods fast. Asmallworld’s report gives insight into how seasonal changes at a company can quietly influence its performance. Using data from Glassnode, CoinGecko, and charts from TradingView helps. Always check for upcoming news in the SEC or company press releases.

Final Thoughts on Investment Strategies

Be cautious with your investment sizes in August. Use hedges and keep an eye on important dates. Analyze the trends from your Bitcoin seasonality study. Update it when you see major company news. Treat August trading like taking photos in dim light: be steady and focused, but ready for surprises. To get this right, download the dataset and chart notebook I mentioned. Use them with lunar dates from NASA or timeanddate for better timing.

Sources: Glassnode, CoinGecko, TradingView charts, SEC/company pressrooms, Asmallworld half-year report, NASA/timeanddate lunar calendar.