BTC-Nasdaq Correlation Post-CPI Data Analysis

Francis Merced

Bitcoin News

August 25, 2025

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It was surprising: right after the CPI report, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq’s relationship soared. For a short time, it went above 0.7 due to investors taking more risks.

The market’s response was quick. Because of the Federal Reserve’s hopeful message and the thought of rate cuts, stocks and crypto both went up. This happens as lower interest rates make holding assets like Bitcoin more appealing. Hence, we saw stocks jump and Bitcoin move closely with the Nasdaq.

However, news specific to the crypto world, like updates from Ripple and SBI, sometimes made the pattern unclear. These events can cause breaks in the usual trends, even if overall trends link BTC and Nasdaq closely.

In this article, I’ll talk about how closely Bitcoin and Nasdaq followed each other during the day. I’ll include a graph showing their relationship and some quick stats. These will help us dive deeper into how Bitcoin correlates with the Nasdaq, especially after the CPI news.

Key Takeaways

• Short-term BTC-Nasdaq correlation post-CPI rose sharply during the immediate market reaction.
• Fed-driven rate expectations were the dominant macro force behind the synchronized moves.
• Crypto-specific news can create divergence even amid strong macro correlations.
• Intraday analysis reveals more pronounced coupling than daily or weekly measures.
• Visual correlation overlays and coefficient tracking are essential to interpret bitcoin price movement after CPI releases.

Understanding the CPI Report Impact on Markets

I keep a close eye on CPI releases. They pack lots of economic data into one headline. This headline guides traders in adjusting their market predictions. The Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a must-know. It’s a major inflation indicator and shapes policy and asset prices.

What is CPI and Why Does It Matter?

CPI tracks the monthly and yearly price changes for consumers. It looks at expenses for living, energy, food, and transport. The Federal Reserve uses CPI as a main inflation check to decide on interest rates.

A lower CPI can lead to expectations of fewer rate increases. This makes stocks more attractive and lowers the cost of investing in things like gold. This is why CPI releases can sway the btc and nasdaq markets.

Recent CPI Data Overview

Latest data shows high inflation, making traders wary. Stocks focused on growth react strongly to any policy change hints. Traders eye S&P 500 and Nasdaq levels for clues on how to bet around CPI news.

A high CPI usually pushes Treasury yields and the dollar up, hurting riskier assets. A low CPI, on the other hand, can boost stocks and cryptocurrencies. How prices move right after CPI updates can hint at future trends.

Historical Context of CPI Releases

Since 2020, tech and Bitcoin have surged when policies eased. After interest rate cuts, we often see big Bitcoin rallies. The Central Bank’s actions and its hints can hugely affect markets, as shown by Jerome Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole.

Market reactions to CPI can be quick or take a few days, as traders assess various factors. This pattern is crucial for making good trading decisions, especially when looking at btc and nasdaq impacts.

Current BTC and Nasdaq Correlation Metrics

This week, I kept an eye on different prices and rates. We saw a rise in correlation right after the CPI print and Federal Reserve’s comments. The bond yields went down as traders saw bitcoin and technology stocks moving closer together.

I’ll explain the math behind recent trends and how to visualize it easily. My aim is to show how you can recreate these findings. I’m not trying to prove a specific point.

Correlation Coefficients Explained

The Pearson correlation looks at how BTC and Nasdaq returns move together. The scores range from -1 to +1. A score near +1 means they move in the same direction. A score near -1 means they move in opposite directions. A score around zero shows no clear pattern.

You must be careful when choosing how long a window to look at. Short windows highlight sudden changes. Long windows show longer trends. The unpredictable nature of crypto and stocks makes it hard to always be right. Volatility spikes, like those after CPI news, can make correlations seem stronger because both markets react to the same news.

Recent Trends in BTC and Nasdaq

This week, the Federal Reserve’s messages seemed to favor economic growth. Jerome Powell spoke in a way that made a September rate cut seem likely. This news helped the Nasdaq go up by about +1.9% in one day.

Bitcoin also rose sharply, increasing by about $5,300 in a day. Its price went from roughly $111,700 to $117,000. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes dropped a bit as well, supporting the rise in both the stock and crypto markets.

Historically, when rates are lower, stocks and bitcoin tend to move together more. But remember, these patterns are short-lived. Once volatility calms down, things might change.

Data Visualization: Recent Correlation Graph

I suggest plotting 30-day and 90-day rolling Pearson correlations between daily BTC and Nasdaq returns. Include the 10-year Treasury yield and any CPI surprises to understand what drives changes.

• Use data from Coinbase or Binance for bitcoin prices; get Nasdaq data from Yahoo Finance or Bloomberg. Check the CPI release dates at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Shorter windows highlight reactions to events; longer ones show ongoing trends.
• Mark important CPI release times and Federal Reserve speeches. Use shaded areas to indicate periods with expected correlation spikes.

Expect a spike in correlation after CPI announcements and speeches by Powell. Then, it might revert to the mean somewhat. The recent jumps in BTC and Nasdaq prices, along with the yield drop, back up this spike in correlation.

Be clear about your methods when sharing results. Include the original price data, use log returns, and note the window length and dates. Being able to replicate findings is key, especially when linking Nasdaq and crypto movements during market shifts.

Key Statistics Following CPI Release

I watched the market’s reaction right after the CPI update and comments from the Fed. The changes in bitcoin prices and stock market flows stood out. They showed how these moves fit into bigger financial patterns. I’m going to share the main numbers, immediate statistics, and factors that influenced these trends.

BTC Price Movements Post-CPI

Bitcoin’s value rose quickly the same day Jerome Powell hinted at possible rate cuts. Its price climbed from about $111,700 to around $117,000. This increase, along with a spike in trading volume, signaled a strong market response.

The increase in active users and more transactions confirmed the price jump. Smaller cryptocurrencies and companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase saw more trading. This showed the broader impact of the rise in bitcoin’s price.

Nasdaq Index Reactions to CPI Data

After Powell’s comments, technology stocks led a rally in the Nasdaq. This saw the index go up by 1.9% in one day. Stocks like NVDA, GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, and META pushed the Nasdaq higher, bouncing back from earlier losses.

This rise in the Nasdaq was supported by a jump in trade volumes. Notable gains in specific sectors, like NVIDIA in semiconductors, helped maintain the momentum through to the market close.

Comparative Analysis: BTC vs. Nasdaq

Both bitcoin and the Nasdaq surged together, showing their moves were connected. The gains came as long-term interest rates dropped and the US dollar weakened. These shifts benefited riskier investments, highlighting the CPI’s effect on these assets.

New investments and changes in investor focus boosted these trends. Companies linked to bitcoin, like MSTR and COIN, saw their values increase by over 6%. It’s clear that developments in the CPI influenced the trading scene significantly at that time.

Here’s a quick look at some key stats from that day.

This table and the information provided give us a clear snapshot. They show how bitcoin and Nasdaq reacted to the CPI announcement and follow-up commentary. It’s important for those following financial markets to understand these movements. They should also pay attention to bonds, currency values, and online trends that supported this rally.

Factors Influencing BTC-Nasdaq Correlation

I keep a close watch on cross-market moves because small signs can hint at big changes. Recent events have shown that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq’s link can quickly change, especially when policies and specific news clash.

Market sentiment is a key driver. When Fed leaders, like Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, speak, they can change market moods. This switch can make growth stocks and crypto both start to climb. I look at AAII surveys and other indicators to spot shifts in investor interest early on.

Economic stats, aside from CPI, also play a big role. Things like job reports, PCE inflation, and the 10-year Treasury yield impact where big money goes. News about tariffs can also influence the market. When such economic data is important, Bitcoin and Nasdaq often move in sync as investors adjust their risk assessments.

Institutional investors also have a big impact. Expectations of rate cuts often lead to more investments in growth stocks and crypto. Actions by hedge funds and big companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase show how institutions can link markets. However, news from regulators or big product launches can change where the money flows.

Whether the Bitcoin-Nasdaq link gets tighter or looser depends on several factors. If economic signs take the lead, the correlation usually increases. But if crypto-specific events happen, like new regulations or token introductions, Bitcoin might not follow the stock market as closely. I consider these factors carefully to avoid mistakes in trading across markets.

A quick list I follow:

• Monitor implied volatility and AAII surveys for signs of changing sentiment.
• Keep an eye on job reports, PCE, and the 10-year yield for economic trends.
• Look at ETF flows, hedge fund strategies, and big corporate crypto holdings to gauge institutional interest.
• Be aware of crypto-specific news that could lead to a temporary shift.

These factors all play together in a volatile market, so timing is key. I use on-chain data along with economic indicators to decide on my investments, and I stay ready to adjust when the market’s behavior is uncertain.

Tools for Analyzing BTC and Nasdaq Data

I use a combination of programming, web tools, and high-end platforms to analyze BTC and Nasdaq data after CPI days. This approach helps me speed up my analysis. It also keeps things clear despite the market noise.

Analytical software recommendations:

I work with Python, employing libraries like pandas, numpy, and statsmodels for custom analyses. These tools allow me to pull price sequences, adjust them to daily closes, and then calculate a 30-day rolling Pearson correlation. R users might prefer quantmod and xts, which are great for time series analysis and include plotting features for quick visual checks.

Online correlation calculators:

For a quick visual, TradingView has a correlation indicator that shows BTC and Nasdaq’s alignment. CoinMetrics provides clear crypto data for in-depth analysis. FRED is great for matching Treasury yields and CPI data with crypto prices, offering a broader economic view. Online tools are user-friendly for quick glances, though they can’t replace custom scripts for more detailed statistical analysis.

Charting platforms to use:

TradingView is my preferred choice for chart overlays and alert scripting. If you require more detailed data, Bloomberg Terminal and Refinitiv provide professional-grade information. Yahoo Finance offers free access to Nasdaq data for quick comparisons. CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, and Glassnode are excellent sources for crypto volume and on-chain data, with Glassnode being particularly useful for spotting BTC accumulation trends.

Practical how-to (30-day rolling correlation in Python):

• Load daily BTC and Nasdaq close series into pandas DataFrames.
• Align by date and drop NaNs.
• Use pandas’ rolling(window=30).corr() on the paired series to compute rolling Pearson values.
• Plot and annotate CPI release timestamps and Fed remarks to check for spikes tied to events.

Here’s a tip: mark CPI releases and major Fed speeches on your analysis charts to check for any correlation spikes. Look into ETF flows and 13F filings to gauge institutional interest changes. Combine this with price correlation data for a fuller picture.

For a brief guide: combine Python or R for detailed analysis, use TradingView and CoinMetrics for quick checks. Turn to Bloomberg or Refinitiv for in-depth and verified information when reporting.

Future Predictions for BTC and Nasdaq Trends

I keep an eye on the markets every day. I want to share what catches my attention and why it’s important. Factors like CPI and PCE figures, job reports, Federal Reserve announcements, and 10-year Treasury yields play a big role in what happens next. The U.S. dollar index and world events also have a big impact, changing things quickly. Things specific to crypto, like new stablecoins and rules, are important too.

Factors to Watch in the Coming Months

Keep a close eye on inflation reports. The August CPI and later PCE data will help guess future interest rates and market liquidity. If investors think interest rates will drop, risky assets become more appealing.

Pay attention to job numbers, company earnings, and updates on chip supplies from Nvidia and others. These factors will help figure out the Nasdaq’s direction after the CPI report and show which sectors might do well. Changes in 10-year yields give hints about the pressure on values and real interest rates.

Expert Predictions for BTC Prices

Experts don’t give exact numbers but offer a range of possibilities. Bitcoin might go up if rates drop while inflation stays high, thanks to more money flowing in and more holding on the blockchain. This could be a positive sign, similar to past trends.

If wages don’t go up or if something unexpected hurts the economy, Bitcoin’s growth might slow down or even fall compared to stocks. The link between rate cut chances and market liquidity to crypto demand is useful to understand. You can find more details in this analysis.

Nasdaq Outlook Post-CPI

Traders think there’s a good chance of interest rate cuts in September. This means tech and Nasdaq might do well if the cuts happen. Big tech companies and AI names might lead, but smaller companies could see even bigger gains.

What happens with chips, big company earnings, and spending trends will show if any rally lasts. A surprising CPI report that puts off cuts could make things tight financially and affect how Bitcoin and Nasdaq move together.

It’s important to note that markets can be unpredictable. Unexpected updates in crypto or sudden economic turns can change how things usually work quickly. I follow the guesses on interest rates and the flow of assets closely; this helps understand the meaning behind big economic reports.

If you’re looking for more details on how rate changes might affect prices and crypto markets, I recommend this insightful note: market note on rate odds. Also, for a data-focused look at Bitcoin, check out this link: bitcoin price outlook ahead of economic data.

FAQs About BTC and Nasdaq Correlation

I keep a running list of questions from traders and builders after CPI days. This FAQ covers the main points I track. It helps me decide if I need to change positions after checking btc correlation with nasdaq today after cpi.

How often does BTC move with equities?

Correlation changes over time. Sometimes, BTC and the Nasdaq move together, especially when big economic events happen. Events like Fed comments or CPI news can push both BTC and tech stocks in one direction.

But, this alignment doesn’t always last. When the economy is stable or if there’s big crypto news, the link between them can weaken or even go negative.

What impacts the correlation?

Several factors can change how BTC and Nasdaq relate. These include Fed policies, unexpected CPI info, Treasury yields, and how the USD is doing. Big moves in or out of funds by institutions also play a big role.

Certain crypto events are also crucial. Things like new rules, big stablecoin launches, or issues with exchanges can cause BTC to move on its own.

Can BTC grow independently of Nasdaq trends?

Yes, BTC can rise even if the Nasdaq doesn’t. This might happen due to more people using bitcoin, big purchases by long-term investors, or new products.

Even so, I always watch both global and crypto-specific news. I use different investment sizes and protections to handle the risk that BTC and Nasdaq might sync up again, especially after new CPI data.

Evidence and Case Studies of BTC-Nasdaq Correlation

I walk through specific episodes where macro moves and crypto-specific news pushed markets together and apart. The aim is practical: give readers patterns they can test using raw data from the BLS, Glassnode, Bloomberg, and Reuters. Below I break the examples into three focused areas to aid reproducible market analysis.

Historical CPI episodes and market reactions

After 2020, when central banks helped the economy, growth stocks and bitcoin both saw big gains. In several cases, BTC rallies went over 300% as Nasdaq saw a tech boom over months. These CPI surprises—going up or down—made moves across assets happen together.

Traders can look at CPI release dates and link them to big price changes. They can check how significant these are with daily returns.

Recent evidence of convergence in market moves

Jackson Hole provides a new example of markets moving together. That day, the Nasdaq went up about 1.9%, bitcoin also increased sharply, and Treasury yields went down to 4.24%. This shows a clear link between bitcoin and Nasdaq due to Fed messages. It’s a clear example of markets moving together because of policy news.

Instances where crypto diverged from equities

Sometimes, crypto and stocks don’t move together. News on regulations or new crypto projects can make bitcoin and other cryptos move independently from stocks. For instance, news about Ripple and other tokens boosted XRP while broader crypto sentiment didn’t follow macroeconomic news. These moments show times when crypto moves on its own news, separate from stock markets.

High-correlation episodes tied to institutional flows

Sometimes big investments link BTC and tech stocks closely. Investments in MicroStrategy and Coinbase led to big changes in those stocks and in bitcoin’s price. These moments are clear examples of a connection between bitcoin and Nasdaq when large investments impact both crypto and stocks. Watching these investments and how prices react helps spot these trends.

How to reproduce these case studies for your own analysis

Start by getting CPI release times from the BLS. Then, pull up Glassnode for on-chain data. Match this with Bloomberg or Reuters for investment flows and company moves. Use simple calculations to see how closely these episodes match and label them as moving together or apart.

Suggested data checks for robust market analysis

• Compare 7-, 30-, and 90-day rolling correlations around each CPI print.
• Overlay institutional flow volume with BTC exchange inflows and Nasdaq ETF flows.
• Annotate regulatory or protocol announcements to isolate non-macro drivers.

Sources of Data and Analysis for Further Study

I use a small, essential toolkit to understand market trends. This includes government releases, macro time series, on-chain data, and institutional reports. I’ll share the resources I use and how I combine them for thorough analysis.

Credible financial market resources

My analysis starts with the Bureau of Labor Statistics for CPI data and FRED for financial indicators. For charts and market trends, I look at TradingView, Yahoo Finance, and Bloomberg. CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap are my go-tos for quick crypto info. Glassnode gives me deep insights into blockchain data, like supply and trading flows.

Research papers on crypto-economics

Academic and industry research guides my hypotheses. I explore studies on crypto’s role against inflation and its relationships with other assets. Institutional insights, especially from Morgan Stanley, help me understand market shifts. I balance formal studies with current working papers to keep my analysis fresh.

Financial news outlets to follow

I keep up with Bloomberg, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and CNBC for the latest in finance. For crypto news, I turn to CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, and FXStreet. I cautiously evaluate insights from Twitter/X and newsletters, always cross-checking for accuracy.

To blend these resources, I start with CPI data from BLS and financial insights from FRED. I compare cryptocurrency trends on CoinMarketCap and blockchain activities on Glassnode. Insights from Bloomberg or Morgan Stanley help me understand market reactions. I always double-check facts with a top news source and primary data before making decisions.

For effective analysis, make a short list of trusted sources. Set alerts for important releases and keep an eye on blockchain data. This strategy helps stay grounded in facts while being ready for market shifts.

Conclusion: The Broader Impact of CPI on BTC & Nasdaq

After checking the data and my trades post-CPI announcement, I noticed a trend: Both bitcoin and high-growth stocks respond to CPI releases and the Federal Reserve’s comments. The Federal Reserve’s recent soft stance and higher odds of rate cuts led to a rally. The Nasdaq went up about 1.9% and bitcoin saw a sharp increase, boosted by lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. This shows how CPI’s effect on bitcoin and the Nasdaq can strengthen their link when market risks change due to policy expectations.

The main lessons are easy to grasp. Keep an eye on the CPI, PCE, payrolls, and the Fed’s advice. I watch for support and resistance on big indexes and bitcoin’s on-chain signals for timing my moves. Using TradingView for charts and Glassnode for blockchain data helps me tie broad market trends to cryptocurrency activity. And it lets me see bitcoin’s connection with the Nasdaq in real-time after CPI announcements.

The market’s unpredictability is normal. Unexpected events or specific crypto news can quickly affect these correlations. Sometimes the market reacts to policy updates in similar ways, but differences emerge when the underlying crypto aspects become key. My tip: have a set of tools for tracking correlation, use charts, and note down major events. Adjust your investment size based on different scenarios. This way, you’re ready for changes in financial trends.

For actionable steps, follow updates from the BLS and the Fed. Read Bloomberg or The Wall Street Journal for insights into the market. Keep an eye on cryptocurrency trends with Glassnode or CoinMarketCap. Mix this information with live data from TradingView or Bloomberg. This approach helps you watch bitcoin’s relationship with the Nasdaq closely after CPI reports. It helps in managing risks when the market is volatile.